How are you going to remember 2019? I admit, I’m having a hard time putting a handle on it.
After all, 2018 will go down as one of the most exciting, record-setting years in transportation equipment. This year, the enthusiasm (to say nothing of the supply-chain drama) has all but gone away—yet the numbers speak for themselves: Across the board, truck and trailer production for 2019 has matched or surpassed industry peaks.
So, in trying to characterize the last 24 months, I was inclined to take the lazy writer’s way out: the sports analogy. Possibly because I had the NFL on across the room, I wanted to let Peyton Manning represent 2018, and Eli Manning would be the analog for this year. Peyton, after all, set most of the major passing records, and Eli’s been no slouch: a nice, long career with a couple of Super Bowl wins to match his big brother.
Except, as good as he’s has been, Eli’s success doesn’t really compare to Peyton’s.
Still, as someone never willing to let a bad idea go, I looked for a more apt 2018/2019 comparison: Ali/Frazier? Not bad, unless you’re under 60 or never cared about boxing. (For the generationally challenged, boxing is a sport that was really big back before mixed martial arts took violence to another level.) Jimmy Johnson’s Super Bowl Cowboys/Barry Switzer’s? That’s too obscure, unless like me you’re a long-suffering fan of America’s Team. (“Were the Cowboys ever really good?” a now-grown son asked the other day—that’s how long it’s been.)
A Babe Ruth/Roger Maris analogy actually works pretty well, but it’s even more out of date—the steroid era and the current age of over-swinging have made a mockery of home run records.
So, like the all-purpose play-by-play guy who’s in the booth for the World Series and Wimbledon, I’ll rely on the commentary of experts who really know the game to put a coda on 2019.
“I wondered aloud during an August meeting, ‘What are the OEMs going to do? Build like crazy for nine months and then just shut the whole thing down?’” said FTR VP of Commercial Vehicle Don Ake, wrapping up the year in his monthly commentary. “It sounded crazy when I said it, but it doesn’t sound crazy right now.”
Indeed, even as market conditions slipped as predicted going into the second half of the year, Q3 truck and trailer production remained strong, very strong. Until it didn’t. Simply, the 2018 boom ran out—albeit in the fall of 2019.
“We’ve experienced wild demand swings in the industry before, but nothing like this time,” Ake said. “And of course, the economic shock, the extreme outside factor, the black swan which caused this precipitous crater was, was, was … Oh yeah, there wasn’t one.”
Indeed, that’s likely the big story for 2019: Despite the hand-wringing and rumors of recession that dominated early autumn business news headlines, nothing bad happened.
Consider: As recently as a month ago geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, weak European growth, Brexit, an autoworkers’ strike and calls for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates captured the headlines and “complicated an already uncertain economic picture,” explained Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation, in his monthly note.
“With all the chatter and short-term fluctuations in the data, it is important in times like these to cut through the noise and focus on long-term trends rather than daily headlines,” Kleinhenz said. “Despite the many moving parts, the economic engine is running and functioning. While economic activity is moderating, it is not collapsing.”
Nor will it collapse. With the USMCA trade agreement moving forward, a China tariff deal in the works, the UAW strike resolved, and the Fed coming through with that rate cut, the consensus calls for slow but continued growth in an economic expansion that’s now in its 11th year.
In fact, the biggest problem for most Trailer-Body BUILDERS readers is—and has been—record employment. For the eighth consecutive quarter, the inability to attract and retain a quality workforce remained manufacturers’ top business concern, according to the latest NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey.
“Manufacturers across the country are telling us nothing concerns them more than the workforce crisis,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons.
Comparatively, though, there are worse problems to have. Again, we need to recalibrate expectations following 2018 when manufacturers’ optimism reached an all-time high. And that pretty much sums up 2019.
But, for a final word as the year winds down, allow me to return to the diamond for the wisdom of Hall of Fame pitcher Satchel Paige—who famously pitched in the big leagues until he was 47 years old.
“Don’t look back,” Paige said. “Something might be gaining on you.”
