U.S. trailer orders improved month-over-month in October but remained well below October 2023 levels, according to the latest reports from ACT Research and FTR Transportation Intelligence.
ACT reported an increase of 4,800 units from September to October, but its October tally of 16,900 units is down 52% year-over-year. A seasonal adjustment at this point in the annual order cycle lowers October’s tally to 12,300 units, but that’s about 16% above September’s seasonally adjusted intake, ACT added.
“Since we’re still in the early stages of the traditional start to the order season, this month’s uptick was expected,” Jennifer McNealy, ACT director of CV market research and publications, said in a news release. “It’s also no surprise that the data is significantly below the October 2023 intake, given the soft demand recorded throughout this year."
October’s data bring year-to-date 2024 U.S. trailer net orders to 118,300 units—a 37.5% contraction when compared to the first 10 months of 2023.
“Despite the sequential order improvement, October data continue to bear witness to our expectations of weaker trailer demand relative to recent performance, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, and already-filled dealer inventories impede stronger activity, especially into early 2025," McNealy said. "An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on the first two months of the new order cycle, but at least on order volumes through January 2025.
“Industry anecdotes suggest that the lack of optimism continues, based on lower backlogs than we’ve seen in a decade. Despite positive momentum in the US economy, lingering weak carrier profitability suggests little support for trailer orders heading into 2025.”
FTR notes historic low
FTR reported a 34% month-over-month uptick in net trailer orders, to 15,970 units, reflecting typical seasonal trends. But its October count is down 55% year-over-year, marking the lowest October total since FTR began tracking trailer data in 2013. Despite the opening of 2025 order boards, net orders remain well below expectations, struggling to build momentum, FTR added.
The challenging truck freight environment continues to weigh on U.S. trailer demand. Trailer net orders for the year to date fell 36% year-over-year to 108,977 units, an average of just 10,898 units per month. Total trailer build rose 8% month-over-month in October to 16,603 units, aligning with typical seasonal patterns, but was down 38% year-over-year. This output is 34% below the five-year average for October and marks the second-lowest monthly production level since August 2020, FTR continued.
In October, total trailer net orders were slightly below total production, reducing backlogs by 1,017 units to 82,089 units. Higher month-over-month production and lower backlogs pulled the backlog-to-build ratio down to 4.9 months, the lowest since June 2020 and about a month below the pre-2020 average. This result indicates mounting pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.
“With the launch of the 2025 order season, North American Class 8 net orders increased 6% year-over-year in September-October 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 58% year-over-year during the same period,” Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, stated in a news release. “The steep decline in trailer demand is largely due to fleets prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. Some fleets might also have been postponing trailer orders until after the November elections or in hopes of lower trailer prices.
“Slightly elevated trailer inventories, reduced fleet spending, and shrinking backlogs are expected to pressure trailer production levels through the rest of 2024. If 2025 trailer orders fail to rebound soon, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.”
