Preliminary net trailer orders rose about 1,000 units from June to Jul but, at 7,200 units, were lower compared to last July and down 37% from a year ago, ACT Research reported. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle boosts July’s tally to 10,300 units. Final July results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate should be within 5% of the final order tally.
This month’s data brings year-to-date U.S. trailer net orders to just under 82,000 units, a 26% contraction when compared to the first seven months of 2023, noted Jennifer McNealy, director CV market research and publications at ACT Research.
“Despite the sequential improvement in orders, July data continues to bear witness to our expectations of weaker demand against the backdrop of elevated order velocity the past few years, continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, and already-filled dealer inventories,” McNealy explained. “That said, it is important to remember that for orders, we remain in the weakest months of the annual cycle, minimally suggesting there is no catalyst for stronger orders before the fall and the OEMs’ opening of their 2025 order books.”
ACT Research does anticipate fleets starting to make more money later this year, thereby increasing their ability to purchase equipment—but that improvement is off a very low base as carrier profits in the first half of 2024 were at levels not seen since early 2010. Looking to 2025, the trailer industry is also pressured by regulation, as fleets’ willingness to spend will lean toward the purchase of new power units ahead of the EPA’s implementation of 2027 regulations, according to the market forecaster.
“Industry anecdotes suggest that the ‘pause button’ is expected to remain pressed through the remainder of 2024, although dealers are making progress in right-sizing inventory levels,” McNealy said. However, cancellations remain elevated, resulting in trailer maker concern about how long demand will stay subdued, as well as whether the supply chain will be ready to respond when demand does ramp.”
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments.