Peak trailer order season opened in September, and October net orders continued to show strong bookings, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.
However, cancellations in some segments remain elevated, despite healthy backlogs, the market analysts noted. On balance, two solid months of orders are not enough to say “sunny skies ahead,” particularly when freight markets continue “their bounce along the bottom” and carrier profits remain at “a low ebb.”
October net orders, at 35,300 units, were 26% higher year-over-year, and 4,000 units more than were booked in September. However, when seasonally adjusted, October’s orders fell to 26,200 units. On that basis, instead of rising from September, orders decreased 9% m/m, suggested Jennifer McNealy, director–CV market research and publications at ACT Research.
“Historically, 35% of the year’s orders are booked in Q4, so the quarter’s seasonal factors run roughshod on the nominal data,” McNealy said. “While the last two months’ order intake is a positive sign, what we don’t yet know is for how long this level of deal closing will be sustained in the freight recession that is expected to linger into early 2024.”
The cancellation rate moderated to 1.2% of the backlog in October, from September’s 2.8% level—improved but still slightly elevated, she added. And as expected in October, orders outpaced production. As a result, the trailer backlogs grew 5% sequentially, but remained lower compared to last year, down more than 25% against 2022’s “supply-chain constrained and pent-up demand heavy environment.”
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments.