The war in Ukraine and the cost of energy—plus general price inflation—have replaced COVID-19 as the principal threats to growth in trailer demand in Western Europe, according to the November forecast for the West European heavy trailer market by CLEAR International.
Economic forecasts for countries in Western Europe have slightly improved for 2023-2024, as inflation rose to 10% but is now moderating, the report notes. Interest rates, however, are still relatively high but not increasing.
As a result, the forecasts for trailer demand in 2023 and subsequent years have improved but, again, only slightly. West European trailer demand remains somewhat insulated from the impact of the war in Ukraine compared to countries that are geographically close to the conflict.
“Trailer market sales for 2023 will be in line with the forecast published in February,” Gary Beecroft, managing director of CLEAR International, said. “There will be some sales growth in both 2024 and 2025.”
Increased costs caused by high inflation and interest rates, combined with some continued problems with sourcing vehicle parts are making profitable manufacturing difficult, per the report. A European war, conflict in the Middle East plus a difficult economic situation cannot help but dent business confidence and reduce companies’ willingness to invest in new transport equipment.
CLEAR forecasts 9.6% fall in trailer demand in 2023 for Western Europe. Subsequent growth in the forecast period will bring the sales level close to that of 2022 by 2025. The 2024-2025 period is expected to be more positive in terms of both the West European economy and trailer registration growth.
“Most published economic forecasts for 2024 are excessively pessimistic, with a stronger bounce back from very low 2023 GDP growth likely,” CLEAT suggests.
During 2023, the trailer market outlook for the UK, Italy and the Netherlands has improved based on the demand into September, whereas Denmark and Finland look weaker.
The West European Trailer Market Report (November 2023), with forecasts to 2027, can be obtained from CLEAR by contacting Gary Beecroft by email at [email protected]. A Global Trailer Market Database is also available from the consulting group.