Rising temps to shrink snowplow market: Report
Key Highlights
- The U.S. pickup with plow-mount registrations increased by nearly 48% from 2002 to 2021, indicating a growing market segment.
- Climate change is already significantly impacting snowfall patterns, which will influence future demand for snow and ice removal equipment.
- Regional analysis shows the top five states account for half of all plow registrations, guiding manufacturers on where to focus sales efforts.
- Forecast models predict a shrinking market for snowplows by 2050 due to warmer temperatures and fewer snow events in key regions.
- The industry will need to adapt, with fleets shifting from large plows to alternative equipment like brine tanks and tractors, especially in southern and warmer regions.
As can be seen in Figure 1, the top five states for pickups with plow-mounts registrations account for almost 50% of the U.S. total. The next five account for another 20% of the total. For manufacturers and distributors of plows that are mounted on pickups and other trucks, these are the states for which they need to prioritize use of their sales resources.
CMPF analyzed NOAA snowfall and temperature data for the winters of 1969-70 through 2024-25 for 44 metro areas in 25 states. The analysis included winter (December through February) snowfall and temperature data compiled from NOAA’s Applied Climate Information System. The snowbelt was segmented into six regions: Northwest, Midwest Plains, West Great Lakes, East Great Lakes, Northeast, and Southern Snowbelt.
Each of the regions is comprised of multiple cities. The report includes CMPF’s own compilation of specific cities’ data, most of which came from airport weather stations, because they tended to be the most consistent over the chosen (last 50 years) time span. The data made it possible to determine how much snowfall is likely to change per one-degree of temperature change.
A Great Lakes temperature forecast from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau are combined with the snowfall data to develop a forecast model for snowfall and pickups with plow-mounts registrations from 2025-50. The report uses data for the Northeast region of the U.S. snowbelt to demonstrate how to use the model. It can be applied as is to other regions, or modified with specific data for specific places/states/regions. (The weather data compiled for this report could also be used to develop a forecast model for sales of larger plows.)
In the low and high GLISA temperature forecast scenarios, the forecast model indicates the market for snowplows and other types of snow and ice equipment will shrink between now and 2050. As temperatures increase, municipal fleets throughout the snowbelt, (especially those in the Southern and Northwest regions) will have to deal with fewer snow events, and more freezing rain events. That will lead to fleets changing their mix of capital equipment, including trucks. Just one example of this is the use of less Class 8 straights with multiple large plows mounted on them, and more tractors to pull tank trailers filled with brine. To be clear, the need for this will be widespread. By 2050, Pittsburgh could be part of a necessarily redefined Southern region of the snowbelt.
Manufacturers and distributors of plows and other snow and ice equipment, municipal fleet managers, landscape companies, and independent owner/operators of pickups that provide snow and ice removal services can find more information at coherentforecasting.org.