However, the president’s advisers have sway over his decisions. Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, suggested that this may change the trajectory of emissions rules. Elon Musk is both the owner of Tesla—manufacturer of the Tesla Semi BEV—and an adviser to the president. Musk may influence the president’s control over EPA.
Push for more oil production
The United States in 2024 produced the most oil of any nation in history, but the Trump administration hopes to further increase oil production on federal land.
The president on his first day published a slew of executive orders to boost oil production and reduce renewable energy:
- Mandated a review of all agency actions that potentially burden domestic energy development
- Ordered agencies to “eliminate harmful, coercive ‘climate’ policies that increase the costs of food and fuel”
- Challenged U.S. wind energy production
- Withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement
- Declared a “national energy emergency,” directing agencies to fast-track energy production on Federal land and issue emergency fuel sale waivers.
The orders will likely introduce slight downward pressure on fleets’ diesel prices over the next year, though they do not guarantee fuel prices will fall.
“I would think, at least based on some of his core businesses, it wouldn’t surprise me that he would be inclined to support more expensive diesel engines that are more complex to operate,” Vieth said.
The administration might instead weaken warranty requirements—reducing the rise in new diesel equipment costs while still giving an edge to heavy-duty EVs.
“The bigger part of the regulation is the warranty extension on the emissions system,” Vieth said. “Could the solution be as easy as ‘let’s get rid of the warranty extension and this isn’t a $20,000 regulation; it’s a $7,000 regulation?’”
Fleet owners can feel confident in assuming the new administration will weaken emissions standards for new equipment eventually. However, fleets should keep an eye on how exactly this deregulation will roll out. The nature and timeline of GHG3’s deregulation will be a factor in the cost of future trucks.
Threat to CARB rules
The California Air Resources Board is perhaps the most contentious regulator for U.S. trucks. CARB’s environmental regulations are likely to face similar opposition from the Trump administration.
CARB only sets emissions standards for California and participating states but is still an influential regulator of commercial vehicles.
Its influence is due in part to the state’s economic size: California had the fifth-largest GDP in the world in 2023. With California’s size, plus that of the several other adopting states, CARB regulations have a tremendous impact on interstate carrier and OEM operations.
“There’s a tremendous global presence based on California alone that creates, basically, a de facto national administration,” Heller said.
For trucking, the major CARB regulations in the crosshairs are Advanced Clean Trucks, Advanced Clean Fleets, and the Heavy-Duty Omnibus. ACT and ACF mandate the sale/adoption of zero-emission trucks, and Omnibus sets strict emissions requirements. Like GHG3, the CARB regulations limit the availability of—and help raise the cost of—new trucks.
Like GHG3, trucking associations and Republicans frequently criticize and oppose CARB’s regulations. The board’s regulations face lawsuits from groups including the National Truck Equipment Association and state attorneys general.
While CARB is a state-level agency, it requires federal permission to enforce regulations in the form of EPA waivers. For example, CARB received waivers for ACT and Omnibus—but it has not received a waiver for ACF, rendering it unenforceable. These waivers allow Trump’s EPA some control over CARB’s regulatory authority, which the president will likely exercise in his second term.
In his first term, Trump temporarily revoked a CARB waiver. The Biden administration reversed the action. California already convened a special legislative session in December to brace CARB for the incoming Trump term.
Scopelitis’s Sharma noted that courts have not yet decided whether a president can revoke waivers.
“While the courts are working their way through several issues, including a related issue on redressability and standing, we will be paying attention to whether a Trump EPA would rescind the waiver already granted for the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation,” Sharma said. “That regulation is making it more difficult to purchase new diesel trucks. Although a court has not decided whether an EPA waiver can be rescinded.”
On his first day as president, Trump ordered EPA to review “state emissions waivers that function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles” and develop a plan to revise them.
CARB will likely continue to enforce its established regulations and follow their timelines. Conflict with the federal government, however, poses an existential threat to the regulations. Interstate carriers will want to keep an eye on CARB’s waivers over the next year.