Total trailer orders were 37,066 in March – better than ACT’s projection of 29,000-31,000 and the February total of 29,720.
Also, dry van deliveries appeared to improve in March - a positive sign for Wabash National’s upcoming 1Q report. Dry van orders were 24,848 (vs. 17,407 in February), up 55.8% year-to-year (vs. up 26.5% in February.). Wabash’s backlog will likely be more than 80% filled for the year when it reports next week (vs. 70% a month ago). Over the last three months, year-to-year order growth has outpaced factory sales for both total trailers and dry vans - favorable indicators of overall demand.
ACT said cancellations remained healthy in March, coming in at 2.5% and 1.7% for total trailers and dry vans, respectively. Since peaking in May, cancellations remain at historically low-end levels, yielding a firm backlog. Net new orders of containers reached positive territory this month, suggesting the industry has worked through cancellations Wabash logged as result of its discontinued domestic intermodal container business.
ACT estimates that 34,331 dry van trailers were delivered industry-wide in the first quarter (36,454 builds minus an inventory increase of 4,003 units) vs. 33,627 a year ago. ACT’s first-quarter delivery forecast for Wabash of 12,500 (vs. 11,200 a year ago) implies that the company represented 36% of total industry deliveries in the quarter (vs. 33% a year ago). As a result, our sense is that Wabash will hit the delivery number for the quarter.