The East European trailer market will grow by over 6% in 2016 and by almost 5% in 2017, according to CLEAR International’s latest forecast.
The figure for 2016 is considerably lower than was anticipated at the beginning of the year and the difference is mostly attributable to developments in Turkey. Political instability had already undermined business confidence in early 2016 and then in mid-year there was an attempted military coup. This has had a dire and worsening effect on business investment, resulting in 10,000 trailers being wiped from the forecast.
Turkey was the largest trailer market in the East in 2015. That position will be taken up by Poland in the current year.
Even though the outlook for Russia has worsened, 2015 was the nadir for the market and demand will grow in all years but one to 2020. The Ukraine and Belarus will follow the same pattern. In fact the growth forecast for the trailer market next year is partially dependent on a rebound in both Russia and The Ukraine.
The economic forecast for Eastern Europe is for stronger GDP and investment growth in 2017, which will result in recovering levels of trade and more demand for road transport. However, a cyclical slowdown affecting the whole region will lead to a fall in trailer demand in 2018 before growth resumes.
Gary Beecroft, managing director of CLEAR commented, “Political instability and military conflict has resulted in the Eastern Europe being stuck at roughly the same level of trailer demand since 2011. A cyclical economic slowdown, most likely occurring in 2018, means that it may well be 2020 before we see the market move ahead decisively.”