The US Work-Truck Market: Open to Outside Influence?
Apr 1, 2010 12:00 PM, Tim Campbell Managing Director, Campbell CV Marketing Group
Global commercial truck trends are coming to America's heartland, Campbell said.
“You might be saying, ‘I'm in the middle of Kansas. What do Europe and Japan have to do with me?’ My answer is, ‘A heckuva lot more now than before.’ And in the next 20 years, that will change tremendously.”
Campbell, a UK resident who also is a Florida property owner, compared the present US commercial truck industry with the way trucks are produced and sold elsewhere in the world. What he sees globally may be a preview of what might happen in the US over the course of the next decade.
One of the big differences between the US and other countries is the way commercial trucks are produced. North American customers can go to their local truck equipment distributor and get a high level of personalization. By contrast, truck customers in Japan and Southeast Asia go to their local truck dealer to buy a truck that has been produced entirely by the truck manufacturer.
Campbell also noted the in the US, ” We have cheap fuel, pressures that are internal and not external, and few serious global players.
“The ‘developed world’ centered around the US, Western Europe, and Japan,” Campbell said. “That's the way it's been for the last 20, 60, 80 years, but the world is getting a lot smaller. Three major US manufacturers are staring down the barrel of a gun. You have to change. The old adage doesn't work anymore. Globalization is an important part of that.”
Campbell listed several reasons why Americans need to know about Europe and Asia to get a glimpse of our future:
Some US heavy-duty truck manufacturers are owned by Europeans.
EPA10 emissions. SCR, the most commonly adopted technology for meeting the new EPA diesel emissions regulation is proven technology in Europe. Major technological mandates such as this force truck manufacturers to seek ways to spread their R & D costs over multiple markets. “The recession has made people reassess manufacturing,” Campbell said. “Manufacturers are asking themselves, ‘What do I produce around the world? I can't have three separate monarchies spending all of the R&D and all of my time. I'm finding out I can't get economies of scale. The market has collapsed.”
China has entered the global market and leapfrogged the US to become the world's largest auto market.
Toyota has overtaken General Motors as the world's largest supplier of cars, ending GM's 77 years at the top.
We are all interconnected. Campbell believes there are opportunities for US companies to sell internationally. “Now is the time to start talking to people,” he said.
Nissan will enter the commercial truck market in the US. “Nissan is committed to make three trucks in the US using technology that's available globally.”
The fastest growth is occurring elsewhere. The contrast can be seen in new registrations of Class 3?8 vehicles. They were down 36.8% in 2009, with just 312,000 units, and down 61.1% from 2006's 803,000 units. Meanwhile, India was down just 6.5% and China has European and global aspirations. For example, FAW accounted for 164,110 medium and heavy trucks in 2009 (up 6.8%) and 84,101 light trucks (up 41.7%).
The way it could go:
Freightliner, Western, Mack, Kenworth, Peterbilt, and Navistar use European-based engines.
Increased use of badge/joint engineering. “Without a doubt, there are opportunities for global manufacturing. Standards will go more together.”
More seeking to enter the US market through JV/mergers.
Increased use of technology. “We're going to see a lot more telematics.”
Greater demand for fuel efficiency thru hybrids and diesels.
Change in market segments.
Reduced customization. “That's the thing that worries me on the work-truck side,” Campbell said.
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