Schneider National Forecasts a Volatile 2009
Apr 9, 2009 1:08 PM
Trucking bankruptcies will increase in the first and second quarters, diesel prices will continue to fall, carriers will feel the pinch of the credit crunch and lack of cash and will remain under pressure to keep rates low, and new truck orders will decline to 2001 levels, according to Schneider National's 2008-2009 State of the Industry Review.
The report says that despite a drop in volume across all of Schneider's industry verticals, capacity is reducing slower than demand, leaving an excess of capacity in the market.
"Some carriers are betting on an economic rebound in 2009 and want to be poised to take advantage of attractive rates should that occur," the report says. "It is our contention that an economic recovery in 2009 that would be strong enough to affect TL demand in a positive manner is overly optimistic. However, we expect capacity to continue exiting the market, causing supply to approach equilibrium with faltering demand near the end of the year. When demand does rebound throughout 2010, the pendulum will swing back to favor the carriers and rates will rise drastically as the market slowly replaces driver and tractor capacity lost to permanent sales. In other words, the freight recession may ease in advance of a true economic rebound."
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