Swift's Moyes believes truck sales will not rebound enough to reach 135,000 this year, 250,000 in 2012
Feb 1, 2010 12:00 PM, By Rick Weber
SWIFT Transportation chairman and CEO Jerry Moyes disagrees with predictions that Class 8 truck sales will reach 135,000 this year, 195,000 in 2011, and 250,000 in 2012.
Moyes said the higher quality of today's trucks and trailers enables fleets to operate equipment longer.
“Our company and our industry got started on a three-year trade cycle and went to a four-year cycle,” Moyes said.
The additional weight of trucks is another reason to postpone purchases. He said the trucks available today weigh almost 2,000 pounds more than the trucks he would replace.
“We're under huge pressures from shippers to keep the weight of our equipment down,” he said.
Speaking in “Fleet Executive Discussion — the Future of the Global Transportation Industry,” he also said he the improved quality of trailers will allow fleets to operate them longer.
“We used to trade trailers on six-, seven-year trade cycles,” he said. “Then we went to 10 years. Today, we have 10-year old trailers we're refurbishing, and we figure we're going to run them another five years. The new trailers we're bringing in today, we're figuring they're 15-year trailers. We spec them a little differently. Trailer manufacturers are going to have tough times with the numbers going forward.
“The other issue is, we used to have 3, 3.1 trailer ratios. The industry, due to better technology, trailer tracking, and techniques and systems, is cutting the trailer ratio to tractor down considerably, which means we can do more with fewer trailers.”
He said he believes container imports will recover slowly, with a 2.3% increase this year, 2.2% in 2011, and 5.5% in 2012 — and the same for intermodal volume, with increases of 1.2%, 2.5%, and 4.4% in the next three years.
He said trucking failures in the first quarter of this year are expected to be higher than they've been since the first quarter of 2001 (about 1,150) and will remain there in the second quarter, only slowing marginally to 800 by the end of the year.
Moyes said he sees tremendous growth in Mexico, particularly with a project that will double the size of the Nogales port in three years.
“Foreign direct investment in Mexico, by the US and other international firms, is rising because of the reduction in labor costs, the decreased risk in the length of supply chain, reduced transportation costs, simplified supply chain, and reduced inventories in the US,” he said.
He said Swift is “very excited” about what's going to happen in the next five to 10 years in technology.
He cited geofencing, in-cab scanning for all driver and customer paperwork, signature capture for all driver and customer needs, true in-cab navigation with traffic alerts/re-routes, road-restriction and speed warning, the ability to control the tractor remotely for security reasons, radio-frequency identification (RFID) fully integrated into equipment for security and maintenance purposes, smart-phones replacing in-cab computers for driver communication and training, and real-time video from the cab of the truck to monitor driver and road conditions.
Two other executives made presentations:
Infrastructure in a World of Change
Patrick Quinn
Co-Chairman, US Xpress Enterprises
Quinn said the nation has an aging infrastructure, as illustrated by the bridge collapse in Minneapolis and the demolition of an 80-year-old bridge linking New York and Vermont, creating major travel-time issues.
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